A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Both composes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
